"The Theory That Would Not Die" by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne is a book that explores the history of Bayes' Rule, a mathematical theory that had been largely ignored for more than a century but eventually became, as the author put it, the “most important idea of statistical inference.” The book tells the story of how Bayes' Rule was discovered by 18th-century statistician Thomas Bayes and his contemporaries, and then championed by 20th-century mathematician Harold Jeffreys. It then goes on to detail how Bayes' Rule was used to crack the German Enigma code during World War II, and how it was used to track down Soviet submarines during the Cold War. Throughout the book, McGrayne does an excellent job of explaining the concepts behind Bayes' Rule, which is based on the idea of updating prior probabilities with new evidence. She shows how this simple principle has been applied to a wide range of fields, from medicine to astronomy. Overall, "The Theory That Would Not Die" is a fascinating look at the history of a little-known mathematical theory that has had a huge impact on the world. It's a must-read for anyone interested in the history of science and technology.

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